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⚾ MLB · AI PREDICTION · SEPTEMBER 18, 2026

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets · 7:15 PM ET

LEAN Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Best odds: +112 Units: 0u

60 /100

AI Score

Our Pick

Philadelphia Phillies

LEAN

Best Odds

+112

Avg: +104

Units

LEAN

Game Time

7:15 PM ET

September 18, 2026

Multi-Layer AI Analysis

Each layer scored independently, then combined for the final confidence score

Market Consensus

OKStrong

Aggregated moneyline odds across many sportsbooks — line value and pricing edge.

Sharp vs Public

OKStrong

Professional money vs public sentiment divergence on this game.

Pitching Matchup

OKStrong

Quality and recent form of both probable starters.

Situational

OKModerate

Rest, travel, bullpen condition, home/away record, and recent form.

Offensive Matchup

OKModerate

How each lineup profiles against the pitching it faces tonight.

Weather & Park

OKStrong

Game-time weather and park factor.

AI Panel Review

OKModerate

Consensus vote from a panel of independent AI models.

Starting Pitcher Matchup

AWAY

Philadelphia Phillies

Tim Mayza (L)

3.06

ERA

1.05

WHIP

8.77

K/9

2.23

BB/9

Hot

64.2 IP this season

HOME

New York Mets

Zac Thornton (L)

3.44

ERA

1.16

WHIP

6.75

K/9

1.96

BB/9

Hot

73.1 IP this season

Situational Analysis

Philadelphia Phillies FORM

Neutral

New York Mets FORM

Cold

Philadelphia Phillies — Last 10	5-5 Away: 44-34
New York Mets — Last 10	4-6 Home: 34-44
Travel Risk	High
Rest Advantage	Neutral
Philadelphia Phillies Bullpen (L3D)	3 games High fatigue
New York Mets Bullpen (L3D)	3 games High fatigue

Weather & Park Conditions

68.9°F

Temperature

10.0 mph

Wind N

Rain Prob.

Low

Weather Risk

Pitcher Friendly

Park Effect

Venue: Citi Field

Supporting Signals

✓Underdog value: dog side beats favorite on edge (0.5u vs 0.0u Kelly)
✓Strong multi-book market consensus
✓8 preferred books covering the game
✓Moderate public support (56% bets)
✓Sharp money signal: 83% money vs 56% bets (+27% discrepancy)
✓Pitching matchup favors pick — Tim Mayza 9/10 vs 7/10
✓Tim Mayza in good recent form
✓Opponent bullpen taxed — advantage for pick side
✓Opponent struggling recently
✓Good road record 44-34 (56%)
✓Good weather conditions for the game

Risk Factors

✗Bullpen taxed for pick side (3 games/3 days)
✗High travel/fatigue risk for away team
✗Pick side is the traveling team
✗Conditions favor pitchers/under

AI Review Panel

Independent analysis from a panel of AI models

AI Model 1

LEAN

Strong multi-book market consensus and sharp money signal favoring the pick side.

Rec: 0.5u

AI Model 2

LEAN

Strong sharp money signal (83% money vs 56% bets = +27% discrepancy) with solid pitching advantage (Mayza 9/10 vs 7/10)

Rec: 0.5u

AI Model 3

LEAN

Sharp money confirmation (83% money vs 56% bets) plus pitching edge for Phillies supports a lean, but travel fatigue cap

Rec: 0.5u

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