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Official record includes every graded published pick. Exclusive Pick tracks only the daily top-ranked selection.
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The Exclusive Pick

Our daily #1 pick, tracked.

The strongest qualified signal from the entire card, published with full reasoning and graded without deletion. Tracked since June 29, 2026.

How results are graded →
⭐ Exclusive
24–16
Exclusive Pick Record
60.0%
Win rate
+10.27u
Profit
2L
Current streak
Tracked since June 29, 2026 · Past performance does not predict future results.
Results Calendar
Aug 1
Mets
L
Aug 2
Reds
W
Aug 3
Padres
L
Aug 4
Braves
W
Aug 5
Brewers
W
Aug 6
Braves
W
Aug 7
Brewers
L
Aug 8
Cubs
L
Aug 9
Phillies
W
Aug 10
Red Sox
L
Aug 11
Brewers
L
Aug 12
🔒
…
Aug 13
—
No Pick
40 graded · Results updated after games conclude · Past performance does not predict future results · 21+
Track Record

Bankroll, day by day.

Cumulative units since June 29, 2026 — every graded pick, wins and losses, nothing removed. 1 unit = 1% of bankroll.

+0u+4u+8u+12u+16u 2026-06-29: Exclusive +0.385u2026-06-30: Exclusive +0.84u2026-07-01: Exclusive +1.15u2026-07-02: Exclusive +0.65u2026-07-03: Exclusive +0.986u2026-07-04: Exclusive +7.08u2026-07-05: Exclusive +13.58u2026-07-06: Exclusive +12.58u2026-07-07: Exclusive +13.225u2026-07-08: Exclusive +13.994u2026-07-09: Exclusive +14.8u2026-07-10: Exclusive +15.677u2026-07-11: Exclusive +16.279u2026-07-12: Exclusive +17.06u2026-07-16: Exclusive +17.06u2026-07-17: Exclusive +16.06u2026-07-18: Exclusive +15.06u2026-07-19: Exclusive +15.785u2026-07-20: Exclusive +16.439u2026-07-21: Exclusive +15.439u2026-07-22: Exclusive +16.093u2026-07-24: Exclusive +15.093u2026-07-25: Exclusive +14.093u2026-07-26: Exclusive +14.818u2026-07-27: Exclusive +13.818u2026-07-28: Exclusive +12.818u2026-07-29: Exclusive +13.508u2026-07-30: Exclusive +13.258u2026-07-31: Exclusive +13.418u2026-08-01: Exclusive +13.168u2026-08-02: Exclusive +13.359u2026-08-03: Exclusive +13.109u2026-08-04: Exclusive +13.285u2026-08-05: Exclusive +13.487u2026-08-06: Exclusive +13.656u2026-08-07: Exclusive +12.656u2026-08-08: Exclusive +11.656u2026-08-09: Exclusive +11.77u2026-08-10: Exclusive +11.27u2026-08-11: Exclusive +10.27u 2026-06-29 Official: +1.252u Exclusive: +0.385u2026-06-30 Official: +1.592u Exclusive: +0.84u2026-07-01 Official: +2.152u Exclusive: +1.15u2026-07-02 Official: +2.07u Exclusive: +0.65u2026-07-03 Official: +2.802u Exclusive: +0.986u2026-07-04 Official: +7.615u Exclusive: +7.08u2026-07-05 Official: +6.865u Exclusive: +13.58u2026-07-06 Official: +5.865u Exclusive: +12.58u2026-07-07 Official: +8.123u Exclusive: +13.225u2026-07-08 Official: +8.627u Exclusive: +13.994u2026-07-09 Official: +9.433u Exclusive: +14.8u2026-07-10 Official: +9.31u Exclusive: +15.677u2026-07-11 Official: +9.912u Exclusive: +16.279u2026-07-12 Official: +9.693u Exclusive: +17.06u2026-07-16 Official: +9.693u Exclusive: +17.06u2026-07-17 Official: +10.451u Exclusive: +16.06u2026-07-18 Official: +9.451u Exclusive: +15.06u2026-07-19 Official: +10.069u Exclusive: +15.785u2026-07-20 Official: +11.543u Exclusive: +16.439u2026-07-21 Official: +10.543u Exclusive: +15.439u2026-07-22 Official: +11.197u Exclusive: +16.093u2026-07-24 Official: +10.197u Exclusive: +15.093u2026-07-25 Official: +9.197u Exclusive: +14.093u2026-07-26 Official: +9.922u Exclusive: +14.818u2026-07-27 Official: +8.922u Exclusive: +13.818u2026-07-28 Official: +8.073u Exclusive: +12.818u2026-07-29 Official: +8.263u Exclusive: +13.508u2026-07-30 Official: +8.353u Exclusive: +13.258u2026-07-31 Official: +8.22u Exclusive: +13.418u2026-08-01 Official: +8.082u Exclusive: +13.168u2026-08-02 Official: +9.063u Exclusive: +13.359u2026-08-03 Official: +8.063u Exclusive: +13.109u2026-08-04 Official: +8.71u Exclusive: +13.285u2026-08-05 Official: +9.53u Exclusive: +13.487u2026-08-06 Official: +9.642u Exclusive: +13.656u2026-08-07 Official: +8.407u Exclusive: +12.656u2026-08-08 Official: +6.407u Exclusive: +11.656u2026-08-09 Official: +6.561u Exclusive: +11.77u2026-08-10 Official: +5.561u Exclusive: +11.27u2026-08-11 Official: +3.94u Exclusive: +10.27u Jun 29Jul 22Aug 11
+3.94u
Net result
+11.543u
Peak
-7.6u
Largest drawdown from peak
Drawdowns are part of the process — this is what a real, unedited record looks like. See every pick →
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What a complete Pro analysis looks like.

A real, already-graded pick shows the decision, supporting reasoning, risk note and grading standard — before you pay.

Real Pick · August 11, 2026 ✓ FINAL · WIN
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Published Line
-120
Stake
0.5u
Confidence
82%
WHY IT QUALIFIED
Strong multi-book market consensus
⚠ RISK & DISCIPLINE
Moderate bullpen usage for pick side
Final scoreCleveland Guardians 4-6 Detroit Tigers
ResultWin +0.379u
Closing line valuepublished -120 · closed -132
✓ Better price than the market close — the bet had value at the moment it was published.
Verified in the public record — every pick on this site is graded win or loss. See all results →
Transparency Standard
Timestamped before game time
Line and unit recorded
Risk note included
Win/loss graded consistently
Closing line tracked when available
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Yesterday's Results

How Yesterday's Picks Did

August 12, 2026 3 picks · Results Pending
Boston Red Sox ML
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays · STANDARD
Pending
Texas Rangers ML
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels · LEAN
Pending
New York Yankees ML
Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees · LEAN
Pending
69
Wins
52
Losses
57.0%
Win Rate
121
Total Graded

Results updated after games conclude · Past performance does not predict future results · 21+

How the Engine Thinks

A disciplined process from data to pick.

The engine evaluates the full slate, qualifies the strongest signals and sends only reviewed positions to publication.

01
Full-slate evaluation
Every available matchup enters the same analytical workflow.
02
Signal qualification
Only positions meeting the current quality and price standards remain.
03
Independent review
AI review challenges the case, risk and supporting evidence.
04
Disciplined publication
Qualified picks are ranked, documented and tracked transparently.

What actually goes into a score

Every game on the slate is measured across all of these before anything is published. Missing data lowers the ceiling — it never gets filled in with guesses.

Market & price
Multi-book odds consensus, best available price vs. market average, implied-probability devig to a fair line, and whether the number on offer actually carries value.
Money flow & line movement
Bet percentage vs. money percentage on both sides, divergence between the two, and line movement measured against the opening number to flag steam.
Starting pitching
ERA, WHIP and K/9 minus BB/9 for both starters, scored as a matchup differential rather than in isolation, adjusted for recent form.
Offense vs. handedness
Team OPS against the opposing starter's throwing hand — split by left and right — plus runs per game over the last 14 days.
Bullpen
Relief-corps ERA and WHIP as a quality rating, combined with recent workload: a rested bullpen counts for less when the arms behind it are weak.
Environment
Wind speed and direction, temperature and park factors, with rain probability able to veto a position outright.
Situation & schedule
Recent form, home/away splits, run differential over the last 10 games, travel and rest — including correct handling of both games of a doubleheader.
Independent AI review
Multiple language models review the case separately and can downgrade or veto a pick. Disagreement between them lowers the score rather than being hidden.
Stake sizing comes from a fractional-Kelly calculation on the devigged edge, capped per pick and per day. A pick with a strong score but no price edge is published at zero units — a rating is not a bet.
The internal model can evolve without changing the promise: consistent evaluation, independent review and transparent tracking.
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Who's Behind This

Built by people who track their own losses.

An independent project combining a statistical model with multi-model AI review. We're not a tout service: the full record is public, the losing streaks included, and you can check every claim on this site against the results page.

Every pick graded in public
121 graded picks over 40 days of play, wins and losses both. Nothing is deleted after the fact.
Timestamped before first pitch
Picks are published with the line we actually got, before the game starts — which is what makes the closing-line comparison meaningful.
Independent, no affiliations
Not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by Major League Baseball, any club, sportsbook or data provider. We take no sportsbook commissions on picks.
No guarantees, ever
No guaranteed-win language, no locks, no doubling-down after a loss. Losing days are published the same way winning days are.
📅 40 days tracked
✅ 121 picks graded
🔓 Full record public
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Our Commitments

✓ No guaranteed-win language
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✓ Published grading policy
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Experimental research belongs in Sports AI Labs — never inside the official Pro performance record.
When are picks published?
Picks go out at 12 PM ET on Discord and become visible on this site at 8 PM ET.
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Yes. Access remains through the billing period.
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No. Picks are informational and involve risk.
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Yes — every graded pick, wins and losses.
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It's graded as a loss and stays in the record.
What's the difference between the free pick and Pro?
Free is a summary; Pro adds full reasoning and two more plays.
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