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Official record includes every graded published pick. Exclusive Pick tracks only the daily top-ranked selection.
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NFL · Week 1

The NFL slate, line by line.

All 15 games this week with the best available spread, total and moneyline — plus key numbers, rest and dome context.

Full slate → Compare odds →
Sun Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET
BUF @ HOU
BUF -1.5 · total 44.5
Sun Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET
TB @ CIN
CIN -3.5KEY NO. · total 50.5
Sun Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET
BAL @ IND
BAL -3KEY NO. · total 49.5

NFL picks publish in shadow at a flat unit, with every one logged before kickoff and measured against the close — see the tracking. They stay out of our MLB record until the engine proves the edge. See the tracking →

The Exclusive Pick

Our daily #1 pick, tracked.

The strongest qualified signal from the entire card, published with full reasoning and graded without deletion. Tracked since June 29, 2026.

How results are graded →
⭐ Exclusive
40–31
Exclusive Pick Record
56.3%
Win rate
+8.52u
Profit
1W
Current streak
Tracked since June 29, 2026 · Past performance does not predict future results.
Results Calendar
Sep 1
Royals
L
Sep 2
Diamondbacks
W
Sep 3
Royals
W
Sep 4
Yankees
L
Sep 5
Guardians
L
Sep 6
Yankees
L
Sep 7
Dodgers
W
Sep 8
White Sox
L
Sep 9
Rangers
L
Sep 10
Rangers
L
Sep 11
Diamondbacks
W
Sep 12
Blue Jays
…
71 graded · Results updated after games conclude · Past performance does not predict future results · 21+
Track Record

Bankroll, day by day.

Cumulative units since June 29, 2026 — every graded pick, wins and losses, nothing removed. 1 unit = 1% of bankroll.

+0u+4u+8u+12u+16u 2026-06-29: Exclusive +0.385u2026-06-30: Exclusive +0.84u2026-07-01: Exclusive +1.15u2026-07-02: Exclusive +0.65u2026-07-03: Exclusive +0.986u2026-07-04: Exclusive +7.08u2026-07-05: Exclusive +13.58u2026-07-06: Exclusive +12.58u2026-07-07: Exclusive +13.225u2026-07-08: Exclusive +13.994u2026-07-09: Exclusive +14.8u2026-07-10: Exclusive +15.677u2026-07-11: Exclusive +16.279u2026-07-12: Exclusive +17.06u2026-07-16: Exclusive +17.06u2026-07-17: Exclusive +16.06u2026-07-18: Exclusive +15.06u2026-07-19: Exclusive +15.785u2026-07-20: Exclusive +16.439u2026-07-21: Exclusive +15.439u2026-07-22: Exclusive +16.093u2026-07-24: Exclusive +15.093u2026-07-25: Exclusive +14.093u2026-07-26: Exclusive +14.818u2026-07-27: Exclusive +13.818u2026-07-28: Exclusive +12.818u2026-07-29: Exclusive +13.508u2026-07-30: Exclusive +13.258u2026-07-31: Exclusive +13.418u2026-08-01: Exclusive +13.168u2026-08-02: Exclusive +13.359u2026-08-03: Exclusive +13.109u2026-08-04: Exclusive +13.285u2026-08-05: Exclusive +13.487u2026-08-06: Exclusive +13.656u2026-08-07: Exclusive +12.656u2026-08-08: Exclusive +11.656u2026-08-09: Exclusive +11.77u2026-08-10: Exclusive +11.27u2026-08-11: Exclusive +10.27u2026-08-12: Exclusive +9.27u2026-08-13: Exclusive +8.77u2026-08-14: Exclusive +9.632u2026-08-15: Exclusive +8.632u2026-08-16: Exclusive +9.584u2026-08-17: Exclusive +9.334u2026-08-18: Exclusive +9.944u2026-08-19: Exclusive +10.113u2026-08-20: Exclusive +10.516u2026-08-21: Exclusive +11.225u2026-08-22: Exclusive +11.368u2026-08-23: Exclusive +11.531u2026-08-24: Exclusive +11.951u2026-08-25: Exclusive +10.951u2026-08-26: Exclusive +9.951u2026-08-27: Exclusive +9.451u2026-08-28: Exclusive +8.951u2026-08-29: Exclusive +9.491u2026-08-30: Exclusive +9.792u2026-08-31: Exclusive +10.108u2026-09-01: Exclusive +9.608u2026-09-02: Exclusive +10.203u2026-09-03: Exclusive +10.645u2026-09-04: Exclusive +10.145u2026-09-05: Exclusive +9.645u2026-09-06: Exclusive +9.395u2026-09-07: Exclusive +9.541u2026-09-08: Exclusive +9.041u2026-09-09: Exclusive +8.541u2026-09-10: Exclusive +8.291u2026-09-11: Exclusive +8.516u 2026-06-29 Official: +1.252u Exclusive: +0.385u2026-06-30 Official: +1.592u Exclusive: +0.84u2026-07-01 Official: +2.152u Exclusive: +1.15u2026-07-02 Official: +2.07u Exclusive: +0.65u2026-07-03 Official: +2.802u Exclusive: +0.986u2026-07-04 Official: +7.615u Exclusive: +7.08u2026-07-05 Official: +6.865u Exclusive: +13.58u2026-07-06 Official: +5.865u Exclusive: +12.58u2026-07-07 Official: +8.123u Exclusive: +13.225u2026-07-08 Official: +8.627u Exclusive: +13.994u2026-07-09 Official: +9.433u Exclusive: +14.8u2026-07-10 Official: +9.31u Exclusive: +15.677u2026-07-11 Official: +9.912u Exclusive: +16.279u2026-07-12 Official: +9.693u Exclusive: +17.06u2026-07-16 Official: +9.693u Exclusive: +17.06u2026-07-17 Official: +10.451u Exclusive: +16.06u2026-07-18 Official: +9.451u Exclusive: +15.06u2026-07-19 Official: +10.069u Exclusive: +15.785u2026-07-20 Official: +11.543u Exclusive: +16.439u2026-07-21 Official: +10.543u Exclusive: +15.439u2026-07-22 Official: +11.197u Exclusive: +16.093u2026-07-24 Official: +10.197u Exclusive: +15.093u2026-07-25 Official: +9.197u Exclusive: +14.093u2026-07-26 Official: +9.922u Exclusive: +14.818u2026-07-27 Official: +8.922u Exclusive: +13.818u2026-07-28 Official: +8.073u Exclusive: +12.818u2026-07-29 Official: +8.263u Exclusive: +13.508u2026-07-30 Official: +8.353u Exclusive: +13.258u2026-07-31 Official: +8.22u Exclusive: +13.418u2026-08-01 Official: +8.082u Exclusive: +13.168u2026-08-02 Official: +9.063u Exclusive: +13.359u2026-08-03 Official: +8.063u Exclusive: +13.109u2026-08-04 Official: +8.71u Exclusive: +13.285u2026-08-05 Official: +9.53u Exclusive: +13.487u2026-08-06 Official: +9.642u Exclusive: +13.656u2026-08-07 Official: +8.407u Exclusive: +12.656u2026-08-08 Official: +6.407u Exclusive: +11.656u2026-08-09 Official: +6.561u Exclusive: +11.77u2026-08-10 Official: +5.561u Exclusive: +11.27u2026-08-11 Official: +3.94u Exclusive: +10.27u2026-08-12 Official: +2.895u Exclusive: +9.27u2026-08-13 Official: +2.326u Exclusive: +8.77u2026-08-14 Official: +3.243u Exclusive: +9.632u2026-08-15 Official: +0.993u Exclusive: +8.632u2026-08-16 Official: +2.024u Exclusive: +9.584u2026-08-17 Official: +2.326u Exclusive: +9.334u2026-08-18 Official: +2.922u Exclusive: +9.944u2026-08-19 Official: +3.125u Exclusive: +10.113u2026-08-20 Official: +3.759u Exclusive: +10.516u2026-08-21 Official: +4.143u Exclusive: +11.225u2026-08-22 Official: +3.973u Exclusive: +11.368u2026-08-23 Official: +4.109u Exclusive: +11.531u2026-08-24 Official: +4.029u Exclusive: +11.951u2026-08-25 Official: +2.886u Exclusive: +10.951u2026-08-26 Official: +1.056u Exclusive: +9.951u2026-08-27 Official: +0.056u Exclusive: +9.451u2026-08-28 Official: -0.944u Exclusive: +8.951u2026-08-29 Official: -0.257u Exclusive: +9.491u2026-08-30 Official: -0.706u Exclusive: +9.792u2026-08-31 Official: -0.39u Exclusive: +10.108u2026-09-01 Official: -1u Exclusive: +9.608u2026-09-02 Official: -0.498u Exclusive: +10.203u2026-09-03 Official: -0.15u Exclusive: +10.645u2026-09-04 Official: -0.215u Exclusive: +10.145u2026-09-05 Official: +0.061u Exclusive: +9.645u2026-09-06 Official: -0.689u Exclusive: +9.395u2026-09-07 Official: -1.043u Exclusive: +9.541u2026-09-08 Official: -1.071u Exclusive: +9.041u2026-09-09 Official: -1.17u Exclusive: +8.541u2026-09-10 Official: -1.92u Exclusive: +8.291u2026-09-11 Official: -1.271u Exclusive: +8.516u Jun 29Aug 7Sep 11
-1.271u
Net result
+11.543u
Peak
-13.46u
Largest drawdown from peak
Drawdowns are part of the process — this is what a real, unedited record looks like. See every pick →
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What a complete Pro analysis looks like.

A real, already-graded pick shows the decision, supporting reasoning, risk note and grading standard — before you pay.

⭐ Real Pick · September 11, 2026 ✓ FINAL · WIN
Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
Published Line
-111
Stake
0.25u
Confidence
65%
WHY IT QUALIFIED
Strong multi-book market consensus
⚠ RISK & DISCIPLINE
Moderate bullpen usage for pick side
Final scoreTexas Rangers 1-9 Arizona Diamondbacks
ResultWin +0.225u
Verified in the public record — every pick on this site is graded win or loss. See all results →
Transparency Standard
Timestamped before game time
Line and unit recorded
Risk note included
Win/loss graded consistently
Closing line tracked when available
Today's Picks

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Real picks from today's engine run. Join Discord to receive them every day at 12 PM ET — free, in full.

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⭐ The Exclusive Pick
STANDARD
✓ Official
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
Line
-116
Unit
0.5u
Confidence
71%
The day's top-approved play — #1 rated across the full analysis engine and the AI review.
STANDARD
✓ Official
Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
Line
-125
Unit
0.5u
Confidence
71%
STANDARD
✓ Official
Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Line
-151
Unit
0.5u
Confidence
70%
The full card, free — same picks, same time, on Discord, X and by email
Yesterday's Results

How Yesterday's Picks Did

September 11, 2026 3W – 0L
Tampa Bay Rays ML
Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays · LEAN
WIN
Chicago Cubs ML
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs · LEAN
WIN
Atlanta Braves ML
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves · LEAN
WIN
115
Wins
100
Losses
53.5%
Win Rate
215
Total Graded

Results updated after games conclude · Past performance does not predict future results · 21+

How the Engine Thinks

A disciplined process from data to pick.

The engine evaluates the full slate, qualifies the strongest signals and sends only reviewed positions to publication.

01
Full-slate evaluation
Every available matchup enters the same analytical workflow.
02
Signal qualification
Only positions meeting the current quality and price standards remain.
03
Independent review
AI review challenges the case, risk and supporting evidence.
04
Disciplined publication
Qualified picks are ranked, documented and tracked transparently.

What actually goes into a score

Every game on the slate is measured across all of these before anything is published. Missing data lowers the ceiling — it never gets filled in with guesses.

Market & price
Multi-book odds consensus, best available price vs. market average, implied-probability devig to a fair line, and whether the number on offer actually carries value.
Money flow & line movement
Bet percentage vs. money percentage on both sides, divergence between the two, and line movement measured against the opening number to flag steam.
Starting pitching
ERA, WHIP and K/9 minus BB/9 for both starters, scored as a matchup differential rather than in isolation, adjusted for recent form.
Offense vs. handedness
Team OPS against the opposing starter's throwing hand — split by left and right — plus runs per game over the last 14 days.
Bullpen
Relief-corps ERA and WHIP as a quality rating, combined with recent workload: a rested bullpen counts for less when the arms behind it are weak.
Environment
Wind speed and direction, temperature and park factors, with rain probability able to veto a position outright.
Situation & schedule
Recent form, home/away splits, run differential over the last 10 games, travel and rest — including correct handling of both games of a doubleheader.
Independent AI review
Multiple language models review the case separately and can downgrade or veto a pick. Disagreement between them lowers the score rather than being hidden.
Stake sizing comes from a fractional-Kelly calculation on the devigged edge, capped per pick and per day. A pick with a strong score but no price edge is published at zero units — a rating is not a bet.
The internal model can evolve without changing the promise: consistent evaluation, independent review and transparent tracking.
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Today's Starting Pitchers
ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and recent form for every probable starter on tonight's slate.
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Who's Behind This

Built by people who track their own losses.

An independent project combining a statistical model with multi-model AI review. We're not a tout service: the full record is public, the losing streaks included, and you can check every claim on this site against the results page.

Every pick graded in public
215 graded picks over 71 days of play, wins and losses both. Nothing is deleted after the fact.
Timestamped before first pitch
Picks are published with the line we actually got, before the game starts — which is what makes the closing-line comparison meaningful.
Independent, no affiliations
Not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by Major League Baseball, any club, sportsbook or data provider. We take no sportsbook commissions on picks.
No guarantees, ever
No guaranteed-win language, no locks, no doubling-down after a loss. Losing days are published the same way winning days are.
📅 71 days tracked
✅ 215 picks graded
🔓 Full record public
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Our Commitments

✓ No guaranteed-win language
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✓ Published grading policy
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Experimental research belongs in Sports AI Labs — never inside the official Pro performance record.
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Yes — every graded pick, wins and losses.
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It's graded as a loss and stays in the record.
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