Bankroll Management & Unit Size Calculator

What Is a Unit in Sports Betting?

A unit is a fixed slice of your bankroll — we use 1u = 1%. Betting in units instead of dollars keeps every stake proportional to what you can afford: a $500 bankroll bets $5 per unit, a $10,000 bankroll bets $100, and both survive the same losing streaks. Every pick we publish comes with a unit size, so the table below converts today's card into exact dollar amounts for your bankroll.

💡 New to betting terms? Start with our guide to reading MLB odds and the moneyline basics guide.

Today's Picks Sized for Your Bankroll — July 28, 2026

Recommended stake per pick at your bankroll. Total exposure today: 4.75u (daily budget: 50u).

Pick	Odds	Conf.	Edge	Units	Your stake
Los Angeles Dodgers Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	-232	84	-0.2%	0u no edge at current price	—
⭐🔒 Exclusive Pick — Pro only until final Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	—	78	—	🔒	—
Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays	-165	76	+1.3%	0.25u	—
Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants	-144	74	+2.9%	1.25u	—
San Diego Padres Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres	-219	73	+1.8%	0.25u no edge at current price	—
Washington Nationals Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals	-137	70	+2.8%	0.75u	—
Minnesota Twins Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	-162	69	+2.1%	1.25u	—
Detroit Tigers Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers	-139	64	+2.1%	0.5u no edge at current price	—
Pittsburgh Pirates Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates	-110	61	+1.1%	0u no edge after two-side consistency check	—
New York Yankees New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	-108	60	+0.9%	0.5u	—

Full history with results and profit/loss is on the results page; the day-by-day record is on bot statistics.

How We Size Every Pick — Fractional Kelly, Step by Step

Fair win probability

We take the market consensus price across many sportsbooks and remove the bookmaker's margin (the "vig") to get the market's true estimate of each team's chances. See how prices move on the odds movement tracker.

Model edge

Our multi-layer confidence score shifts that probability, with a conservative cap. Heavy favorites pay an extra penalty because their prices historically hold little value.

Kelly edge filter

The Kelly criterion tells us which games are worth playing at their current price. If a pick has no edge at its price, it gets 0u — even if the team is likely to win.

Daily budget allocation

A fixed daily budget is split across the playable picks proportionally to confidence. Higher-confidence picks get a bigger share; AI-downgraded picks weigh less.

Guardrails

A hard minimum and maximum stake on any single game — no exceptions, no matter how strong the signal looks.

💡 A pick can be a probable winner and still be a bad bet. If the price already charges you more than the win probability is worth, the correct stake is zero. That's why some published picks show 0u.

What a Losing Streak Really Costs

Assuming a flat 1u per pick. This is why unit size matters more than pick quality — the dollar figures update with your bankroll above.

Cold streak	0.5% units	1% units	2% units
3 straight losses happens to every 55% bettor	-1.5%	-3%	-6%
5 straight losses happens to every 55% bettor	-2.5%	-5%	-10%
8 straight losses happens to every 55% bettor	-4%	-8%	-16%
12 straight losses happens to every 55% bettor	-6%	-12%	-24%

The Rules That Keep You Alive

1u = 1% of bankroll. Recalculate your unit monthly (or after ±25% swings), not after every bet.
Never chase. The stake for tomorrow does not grow because today lost. The formula doesn't remember yesterday — neither should you.
Bet the number, not the team. If the line moves past our published price by 10+ cents, the edge may be gone — skip it.
Expect losing streaks. A 55% bettor loses 5+ in a row regularly. At 1% units that's a manageable week; at 10% "units" it's ruin.
Withdraw profits on a schedule, not on emotion.

Bankroll Management FAQ

What is a unit in sports betting?

A unit is a fixed percentage of your bankroll — we recommend 1%. Betting in units keeps your stakes proportional to what you can afford, protects you during losing streaks, and makes results comparable between bettors with different bankrolls.

How much of my bankroll should I bet per game?

Most professionals risk 1–3% of their bankroll per play. Our system recommends 1% per unit, with individual picks ranging from 0.25 to 10 units depending on the edge. Never bet more than 10% of your bankroll on a single game, no matter how confident you feel.

What is the Kelly criterion in sports betting?

The Kelly criterion is a formula that calculates the optimal bet size from two inputs: your win probability and the odds you're getting. Full Kelly is aggressive and unforgiving of estimation errors, so professionals use fractional Kelly — we use a conservative fraction of Kelly as a filter to decide which picks are worth playing at their current price.

How are your unit sizes calculated?

A Kelly-criterion filter first decides which games are playable: we remove the bookmaker's margin from the multi-book consensus price to get a fair win probability, then adjust it conservatively with our model's confidence score. Picks with no edge at the current price get 0 units. A daily budget is then split across the playable picks proportionally to confidence, with hard minimum and maximum caps per game.

Why do some picks show 0 units?

Because the price already costs more than the estimated win probability is worth. A likely winner at a bad price is still a losing bet long-term, so the correct stake is zero. We publish these picks for transparency, but the math says pass.

How much of my bankroll can I lose in one day?

The daily budget is 50 units (50% of bankroll) split across all playable picks, with at most 10 units on a single game. This is an aggressive profile: a typical losing day costs 5–8% of your bankroll. If that's too much variance, scale every stake down proportionally — the ratios between picks are what matter.

When should I recalculate my unit size?

Recalculate monthly, or after your bankroll moves ±25%. Do not resize after every bet — that turns discipline into emotion. If you're winning, your unit grows with your bankroll; if you're losing, it shrinks and automatically protects you.

What is the difference between flat betting and proportional betting?

Flat betting risks the same amount on every pick regardless of confidence. Proportional (Kelly-based) betting risks more when the edge is bigger and nothing when there is no edge. Flat betting is simpler and fine for beginners; proportional betting extracts more value from the same picks when your edge estimates are honest.

Keep Learning

Today's MLB Picks Verified Results & ROI Moneyline Guide How to Read Odds Sharp Money Explained Odds Movement Tracker

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