NFL Shadow Tracking — Every Pick Measured Against the Close

62

picks logged

41.9%

beat the close

+0.05pp

average CLV

36-26

record

+8.05u

units at 1u flat

CLV compares the consensus price when we logged the pick against the consensus price at the close. Units assume a flat 1 unit per pick — no staking ladder while the engine is unproven.

Date	Game	Pick	Logged	Close	CLV	Result
2026-10-19	WAS @ SF	SF -7.5 spread	100.0	-113.0	+1.83pp	L
2026-10-19	WAS @ SF	under 51.5 total	-105.0	-109.0	-0.23pp	W
2026-10-18	LAC @ KC	KC ML moneyline	-391.0	-425.0	+0.18pp	W
2026-10-18	CAR @ PHI	CAR -3 spread	-108.0	-115.0	+0.00pp	W
2026-10-18	DAL @ GB	DAL ML moneyline	101.0	-112.0	+2.09pp	L
2026-10-18	BUF @ LV	BUF -5.5 spread	-105.0	-109.0	-1.12pp	L
2026-10-18	NYJ @ NE	NE -7.5 spread	-102.0	-113.0	-0.22pp	L
2026-10-18	PIT @ TB	PIT -2.5 spread	100.0	-112.0	-0.22pp	W
2026-10-18	NO @ NYG	NYG ML moneyline	-102.0	-108.0	+0.00pp	L
2026-10-18	BAL @ CLE	BAL ML moneyline	-169.0	-174.0	-0.13pp	L
2026-10-15	SEA @ DEN	DEN ML moneyline	125.0	124.0	-0.40pp	W
2026-10-15	SEA @ DEN	under 40.5 total	-105.0	-109.0	-0.23pp	W
2026-10-12	BUF @ LA	BUF ML moneyline	154.0	147.0	+0.16pp	W
2026-10-12	BUF @ LA	under 54.5 total	-102.0	-110.0	+0.69pp	L
2026-10-11	BAL @ ATL	BAL +3 spread	100.0	-115.0	-0.85pp	W
2026-10-11	DEN @ LAC	DEN ML moneyline	-185.0	-190.0	+0.00pp	W
2026-10-11	CLE @ NYJ	CLE ML moneyline	125.0	118.0	+0.00pp	L
2026-10-11	IND @ PIT	PIT ML moneyline	-149.0	-157.0	+0.31pp	W
2026-10-11	HOU @ TEN	TEN +6.5 spread	100.0	-105.0	+0.00pp	L
2026-10-11	CIN @ MIA	CIN ML moneyline	-357.0	-367.0	+0.00pp	W
2026-10-11	LV @ NE	LV ML moneyline	160.0	156.0	+0.30pp	L
2026-10-11	DET @ ARI	DET ML moneyline	-233.0	-249.0	+0.17pp	W
2026-10-08	TB @ DAL	TB +9 spread	-105.0	-115.0	+0.66pp	W
2026-10-08	TB @ DAL	over 48.5 total	-108.0	-119.0	+1.29pp	L
2026-10-05	ATL @ NO	ATL ML moneyline	105.0	-103.0	+1.23pp	W
2026-10-05	ATL @ NO	over 47.5 total	-110.0	-112.0	-1.09pp	W
2026-10-04	LAC @ SEA	SEA -7.5 spread	-102.0	-107.0	-0.92pp	L
2026-10-04	KC @ LV	KC ML moneyline	-215.0	-227.0	-0.09pp	W
2026-10-04	NYJ @ CHI	CHI ML moneyline	-178.0	-192.0	+0.48pp	W
2026-10-04	NE @ BUF	BUF -7 spread	100.0	-109.0	+0.23pp	L
2026-10-04	JAX @ CIN	JAX ML moneyline	123.0	119.0	+0.00pp	W
2026-10-04	DEN @ SF	SF ML moneyline	-147.0	-160.0	+0.60pp	W
2026-10-04	DAL @ HOU	DAL ML moneyline	132.0	127.0	+0.19pp	W
2026-10-04	GB @ TB	GB ML moneyline	-156.0	-156.0	-1.33pp	W
2026-09-24	ATL @ GB	GB ML moneyline	-250.0	-246.0	-0.89pp	L
2026-09-24	ATL @ GB	over 43.5 total	-104.0	-112.0	+0.45pp	W
2026-09-21	NYG @ LA	NYG ML moneyline	265.0	241.0	+0.67pp	L
2026-09-21	NYG @ LA	over 47.5 total	-111.0	-111.0	+0.00pp	L
2026-09-20	CIN @ HOU	CIN ML moneyline	135.0	126.0	+0.19pp	W
2026-09-20	JAX @ DEN	JAX ML moneyline	130.0	126.0	+0.00pp	L
2026-09-20	MIN @ CHI	CHI ML moneyline	-215.0	-220.0	+0.00pp	L
2026-09-20	SEA @ ARI	ARI +3.5 spread	100.0	-100.0	-1.46pp	L
2026-09-20	NO @ BAL	BAL ML moneyline	-385.0	-420.0	+0.11pp	L
2026-09-20	MIA @ SF	SF ML moneyline	-1000.0	-1001.0	-0.20pp	W
2026-09-20	GB @ NYJ	NYJ +3.5 spread	-112.0	-115.0	+0.22pp	W
2026-09-20	CAR @ ATL	CAR ML moneyline	-145.0	-147.0	-0.49pp	W
2026-09-17	DET @ BUF	BUF ML moneyline	-238.0	-248.0	+0.17pp	W
2026-09-17	DET @ BUF	over 54.5 total	-116.0	-118.0	+0.00pp	W
2026-09-14	DEN @ KC	KC ML moneyline	-127.0	-134.0	+0.00pp	W
2026-09-14	DEN @ KC	over 43.5 total	-109.0	-112.0	+0.00pp	L
2026-09-13	GB @ MIN	MIN ML moneyline	-110.0	-128.0	+0.19pp	W
2026-09-13	MIA @ LV	MIA ML moneyline	155.0	140.0	+0.00pp	L
2026-09-13	CHI @ CAR	CHI ML moneyline	-143.0	-162.0	-0.57pp	W
2026-09-13	ARI @ LAC	ARI ML moneyline	475.0	379.0	+0.17pp	W
2026-09-13	ATL @ PIT	PIT ML moneyline	-161.0	-276.0	-0.07pp	W
2026-09-13	DAL @ NYG	DAL ML moneyline	-149.0	-167.0	+0.43pp	L
2026-09-13	WAS @ PHI	PHI ML moneyline	-222.0	-257.0	-0.23pp	W
2026-09-13	NYJ @ TEN	NYJ ML moneyline	125.0	101.0	+0.00pp	W
2026-09-10	SF @ LA	over 48.5 total	-105.0	-114.0	+1.35pp	L
2026-09-10	SF @ LA	SF ML moneyline	170.0	168.0	-0.28pp	W
2026-09-09	NE @ SEA	NE ML moneyline	165.0	149.0	+0.16pp	L
2026-09-09	NE @ SEA	over 44.5 total	-105.0	-108.0	-0.23pp	L

How to read this

What does 'shadow' mean here?

Every NFL pick is published and tracked, but it is not part of our MLB record and carries no recommended exposure beyond a flat unit. It is the engine's output while we prove — in public — whether it beats the closing line.

Why is closing line value the test?

Over 40 or 50 picks, wins and losses are mostly noise. Whether the market moves toward your side is a faster and harder signal. We measure consensus price against consensus price — comparing a best price against an average inflates the number.

When do NFL picks stop being shadow?

When the engine clears its gate: closing line beaten on at least 55% of a minimum of 40 measured picks. Below 52%, NFL stays free context and we say so.

This week's slate → Our MLB record →

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Every NFL pick, logged before kickoff and measured against the close

How to read this